The last I looked, your model has Kamala Harris winning the election at around 52 percent — it might be a little different today. But this has been an unusual election. How much stock do you put in your model right now?
At the same time, her momentum has been pretty good, which usually I dismiss, but we don't really know what the base line is here. Hillary Clinton, who was, I think, kind of a terrible candidate, won the popular vote by two points. Is she a little bit better than Hillary Clinton? Probably, right? So can she win by three or four? Well, if you win by three or four, then you win the Electoral College in most instances.
I don't think many people expected the turnaround in her numbers we've seen since she's become a presumptive nominee. She's gone to net favorables, which I would not have bet a ton of money on — at this speed, at least. People were looking at a lot of data on Harris and assuming that data was solid. That data was not solid.
I think this is on the higher side for a jump in favorables. But she was amazingly well organized at getting the entire establishment behind her within minutes of Biden announcing he was going to step down. So that suggested that maybe she did have more support in the party than she let on.
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